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Li Chao | Metal Chief Analyst
Followed Number: S01
Tin: New productive productivity encounters production capacity cycle,
The inventory turning point establishes the starting point of the bull market
Tin: semiconductor is the most related, new quality productivity benefits.Tin has the characteristics of good conductivity, low melting point, and easy to form alloys such as alloys. It is mainly used in welded materials and is the most related to semiconductor -related metal variety; tin also has important use in photovoltaic welding bands.Therefore, Xi will benefit from the development of "high -tech" and "high -efficiency" emphasis on new productivity.
Tin price recovery: Semiconductor prosperity determines the base price, and Indonesia and Myanmar supply decide a premium.We have re -invent the tin valence and discovered that the tin valence big bull market is often a semiconductor bull market.Due to the large supply of supply in Myanmar and Indonesia, tin valence will be separated from the semiconductor prosperity.
Development of production capacity cycle: Decreased amount, scattered incremental and large uncertainty.In 2023, the global tin ore output was 290,000 tons, mainly concentrated in India (23%), Myanmar (19%), Indonesia (18%), Peru (8%) and other countries and regions. The CR4 was 68%.1) Decrease determination.In terms of Myanmar: Tongbang began to stop production of tin mines in April 2023. From February 2024, the whole state tin concentrate was uniformly charged at the 30%tax rate.The import volume will be -56%year-on-year.In Indonesia, due to the impact of the release of new regulations, presidential elections, and anti -corruption, the delay of RKAB distribution has seriously affected the exports of tin ingot and tin ore mining.We expect that the total reduction in Myanmar and Indonesia in 2024 will reach 35,000 metal tons.2) Listed increment and greater uncertainty.Domestic incremental projects are mainly Yin Man Mining Phase II, Gao Feng Mine and Tongkeng Mine. We expect that domestic mineral tin production in 2026 is 79,000 tons, and the CAGR in 3 years is 4%.Overseas aspects: The MPAMA SOUTH project will contribute to the largest increase in overseas in the near future and superimposed MINSUR recovery production.In terms of long-term increasing, projects such as UIS, Syrymbet Tin Project and other projects are concentrated in 2025-2026. The project increase has not reached 10,000 tons and still has great uncertainty.We predict that the output of overseas mineral tin in 2024 is -11%year-on-year; by 2026, the output of overseas mineral tin is 236,000 tons, and the CAGR in 3 years will be 2%.
New quality elements: AI empower semiconductor recovery, photovoltaic+continuous efforts.According to ITA 20122, the global demand for welding is 50%, followed by tin chemical industry and other fields. PCB is the direct downstream of welding, and the demand is driven by communication equipment, computers, automotive electronics and consumer electronics.In terms of semiconductors: Global semiconductor sales and domestic semiconductor sales have significantly recovered. Semiconductor inventory in India, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea has entered the replenishment stage or the bottom range, and the production level has also entered the recovery channel.The rise of the AI wave will further increase the amount of tin in the semiconductor field through the high increase of AI mobile phones, PCs and server output.We calculate that the demand field in the global integrated circuit field in 2026 is expected to reach 166,100 tons, and the CAGR of 2023-2026 is 5.4%.In terms of automotive electricization and intelligence, driven by the wave of intelligence, the tin consumption in the global automotive field in 2026 was 412,000 tons, and the CAGR in 3 years was 9%; the demand of tin in the photovoltaic field was mainly reflected in the welding zoneGuoabong Investment. We calculated that 2026 globalThe amount of welding in the field of photovoltaic fields is as high as 49,900 tons, and the CAGR in 3 years is as high as 21%.
Analysis of supply and demand balance: Continuous supply is in short, and the price is expected.We assume that the output of recycled tin grows slowly, so the global refined tin output is expected to reach 396,400 tons in 2026, and the CAGR in 3 years is 2%.In terms of demand, it is assumed that Makou Iron and tin chemical industry have grown slowly, and the global refined tin demand in 2026 is 408,400 tons, and the CAGR in 3 years is 5%.From 2024-2026, tin will continue to be in short supply, with the gaps -0.96/-1.02/-11,900 tons, respectively.
The inventory is accelerated after the top, the historical high is started, and the tin price is elastic.As of early August 2024, the global tin ingot inventory was 28%compared to its peak (May 24th), which is currently close to the same period of 2023. At the end of July 24, the tin ingot operating rate was 66%, which was at the highest level in history.Due to the tight ore ending, the processing fee of tin concentrates continues to be low.Inventory is accelerated, the supply is high, the ore ending is tight, and the tin value is expected to be elastic.
Elastic selection of tin industry, growth and selection of Hua tin.Considering the up superimposed on the wave of AI, the demand for semiconductors has a significant recovery, and photovoltaic+continuous efforts; the overseas Myanmar and Indonesia have obvious reduction, the global increase is scattered and there are still great uncertainty.It is expected to open the price of long cows.Suggestions: (tin industry leader, enjoy high elasticity), (tin two rounds, driving growth), (silver tin resources giant, high growth into a new chapter).
Risk reminder: semiconductor recovery is less than expected; photovoltaic installation is not as good as expected; global tin supply exceeded expectations.Nagpur Investment
Click to read the full text "Deeper Research on the Nonferrous Metal Industry: Tin: New Quality Productivity Encountered the production capacity cycle, the inventory turning point establishes the starting point of the bull market"
Basic Chemical Research
Chen Yi | Chief Analyst of Basic Chemical Engineering
Followed Number: S01
Titanium ore: The global supply and demand pattern is tight,
The industry is expected to maintain high boom
Titanium ore is the starting point of the titanium industry chain and has strong resource attributes. Titanium iron ore and golden redstone are currently the main titanium mineral varieties that are currently mining and utilization.
From the perspective of reserves, according to USGS data, during the period of 1995-2023, global titanium iron ore and gold red stone reserves (with TIO2) reached a historical peak in 2017-2018. In 2018, global titanium iron ore and gold red stone reserves were 8.8, respectively.100 million tons, 62 million tons.In 2023, the global titanium iron ore and gold red stone reserves were 690 million tons and 55 million tons, respectively, down 21.6%and 11.3%compared with 2018, respectively.
From the perspective of resource distribution, according to USGS data, global titanium iron ore resources are mainly distributed in India, India, Canada, Brazil and other countries. Among them, Indian titanium -iron ore reserves are about 210 million tons, accounting for 30.4%of global reserves.In contrast, golden stone distribution is more concentrated. In 2023, Australia's golden stone reserves were about 35 million tons, accounting for 63.6%of global gold red stone reserves.
From the perspective of major global titanium production enterprises, according to TZMI and related data released in 2023, the top nine major global titanium -containing raw material production enterprises account for more than 50%, of which large includes (RIO TINTO), Pan Gang Group, Tronox,,, Kenmare, etc., the marginal changes in key mining projects in leading enterprises in the next few years are the key factor in determining the supply of global titanium.Judging from the planning of major enterprises at this stage, the changes in overseas supply mainly come from ILUKA, Sierra Rutile, Base Resources, and Sheffield Resources and other companies.In terms of, the gradual production of some new titanium ore projects has become the main marginal increase in the supply of overseas titanium ore in the future.From a domestic perspective, according to Anning Co., Ltd. announced, my country's titanium resources are mainly in the form of native titanium (magnetic) iron ore type. According to the statistics of many data, the output of titanium concentration in Panzhihua area in 2023 %, The largest capacity of the largest production capacity comes from the Panxi area, namely Pan Gang Group, Longbai Group, and Xichang Mining. In the future, companies represented by Longbai Group will still have a certain new titanium production capacity.
According to Baichuan Yingfu data, most of the downstream demand in titanium concentrate in 2023 comes from titanium pink, and the demand for sponge titanium accounts for about 10%.
Titanium white powder: According to the relevant information of the annual report of Chemours, the overall demand of titanium pink powder is highly related to the growth of global housing, commercial buildings and packaging markets.In the long run, the demand for titanium pink will generally increase proportionally with the growth of GDP.According to USGS data, the global titanium pink production capacity in 2023 was about 9.8 million tons, of which Indian titanium pink powder capacity was 5.5 million tons, and the production capacity accounted for 56%.
Sponge titanium: From the perspective of demand structure, the downstream demand in my country's titanium material in 2023 mainly centralized the field of chemical and aerospace, accounting for 50%and 20%of the total application volume, respectively.According to the "2023 Indian Titanium Industry Development Report", in 2023, the amount of dosage of the 3C field has exploded, and the annual dosage increase is close to 10,000 tons.
Supply and demand calculation: According to our calculations, the supply volume of global titanium ore (folding TIO2) from 2024-2026 is 931/948/1.9 million tons, demand (folding TiO2) is about 958, 991, 10.24 million tons, 2024-2026 2026Global titanium ore (supply volume-demand) is -27/-43/-150,000 tons, so in terms of three-year dimension, global titanium resources are still in a state of relatively shortage. ThereforeEssence prices can basically maintain a relatively high operation.
Based on the sorting and calculation of global titanium ore supply and demand, we believe that the price of titanium ore in the short -term in the short term can still maintain a relatively high operation. Therefore, there are companies with titanium resource layout and future companies with incremental resources.The domestic titanium industry chain is integrated.
Risk reminder: downstream demand is less than expected; global production capacity expansion speed exceeds expected; policy changes risk; enterprise project construction is not as good as expected risks.
Click to read the full text "Titanium: The global supply and demand pattern is tight, and the industry is expected to maintain high prosperity"
Full of Peng | Machinery Chief Analyst
Following Number: S02
One of the overseas leader re -examination series:
Construction Machinery Centennial Store,
In terms of revenue, profits, and market value, it is a well -deserved leader in the construction machinery industry.Caterpillar was officially established in 1925. It has a history of nearly a centuryIndore Investment. The net profit of revenue and mother -in -law increased from US $ 40 to $ 2.025 billion in 1954 to 670.6 and $ 10.34 billion in 23 years. In the past 70 yearsThe amount of quantity achieves hundreds of times.
Historical review-four iterations, achieved a century of Carter.Phase 1: At the beginning of the 1930s, the company innovatively launched a diesel tractor, and the income scale was restored.Phase 2: Caterpillar seized the development opportunities of the European construction industry after World War II and built factories in many places overseas. Overseas revenue accounted for 37%in the early 1960s to 52%in 1970.Phase 3: In the 1980s, Carter followed the hydraulic technology, developed the excavator market, improved multiple links such as channels and supply chains to resist the crisis of "Siege City" (for three consecutive years).Phase 4: From 2000, Carter has acquired at least 20 companies in/mergers and acquisitions. From upstream parts to other categories of downstream, the profit scale has officially entered a period of rapid growth.
Globalization layout, downstream expansion, core component self -made, and high -quality agent system are Carter's four core competitiveness, so that it can grow through the cycle into a leader: 1) Globalization: globalization layout and adherence to localization, 23 23, 23In the year, Carter's income/employee's income/employees accounted for 46%/45%. The global layout guarantees that Carter no longer depends on a single North American market.2) Multi -downstream: 24H1 Carter ’s three major business revenue in construction engineering, energy transportation, and resources accounted for 37%/39%/18%, respectively. The multi -decline layout ensures the diversity of Carter's income.3) Rewinding and self -made components: Carter started to produce by the engine during the Greater Depression and continued to this day.From the perspective of R & D expenses, the 23-year Carter R & D cost reached 14.85 billion yuan, which was about 3-4 times that of domestic head manufacturers.4) High -quality agents: Carter has more than 100 agents worldwide, and mainstream agents have a long period of cooperation and strong stickiness, and Carter has cultivated comprehensive service -type head agents such as Fenning International and Trommond.Judging from competitors, the agent touched the sinking market is one of Carter's important moat.
Stock price recovery: High ROE level determines Carter's valuation premium, and high profit margins are the factor of the rise in this round.
Valuation end: (1) Horizontal: During the 2010-24H1, Carter's average valuation of the valuation of the three companies was 14%(after excluding the strange value).For the reason, Carter's valuation level exceeds the core of the company for a long time is the higher ROE level. The average ROE of the 2010-24H1 ROE reached 28.5%. In the past five years, it remained above 32%(except 2020).The level is higher.(2) Venture: Repeatedly invent the changes in the previous four -wheeled stock price. We found that the rise in the first three rounds of stock prices mainly comes from the recovery of the industry's demand, and the valuation first increases the stock price before the performance.So far, the sales price of Carter's products has continued to rise, which has driven the net interest rate to continue to rise. The net interest rate of 24H1 companies is as high as 17%, which has increased by 5.7pct relative to 22 years, which has promoted the stock price of this round.
Profit end: This round of profit release is driven by price increase.(1) The proportion of sales scale to operating profit in 2017-21 was 57.1%, 39.9%, -6.8%, -96.7%, and 44.7%. The income scale during this period was the main factor affecting operating profit.(2) 2022-24H1 Caterpillar sales price contributed to 51.8, 56.0, and 115 million US dollars to operating profit, accounting for 65.5%, 43.2%, and 16.5%.%, -10%.
For reference development paths, globalization can significantly reduce the impact of fluctuations in the demand fluctuations in a certain region on the overall incomeUdabur Stock. 24H1 Caterpillar Eame, Asia -Pacific, and Latin America revenue accounted for 18%/18%/10%, respectively.The global layout of domestic OEMs has been smooth in the past few years. In 2023, the proportion of overseas revenue of XCMG and Zhonglian overseas reached 59%, 40%, and 38%, respectively. Exports have become an important growth momentum for the OEMB.In 23 years, Caterpillar's construction machinery business accounted for less than 40%. Product diversification is the core of achieving cross -cycle growth. Domestic leading manufacturers have expanded smoothly in the fields of mining machinery, high -altitude machinery, agricultural machinery and other fields in recent years.It is recommended to pay attention to domestic leading domestic manufacturers with a smooth promotion of globalization and diversified product layout ...
Risk reminder: There are fluctuations in industry demand, fluctuations in raw material prices, increasing industry competition, and fluctuations in freight rates.
Click to read the full text "Industry In -depth Studies: One of the Overseas Lottery Repenting Series: Construction Machinery Centennial Store, Time of Sumi"
Yang Chen | Chief Analyst of Military Workers
Followed Number: S01
: Fighting machine cradle hug
The wave of empty navy construction, military trade,
Maintenance opens long -term development space
It is the main development base of my country's aviation defense equipment. It is known as the "first share of Indian fighters". The products include aviation defense equipment, civil aviation and maintenance.For more than 70 years of deep cultivation of aviation defense equipment, the company's products have witnessed the leap from the first-generation aircraft to the fourth-generation aircraft. With the volume of aviation equipment, the company's performance has grown steadily from 2017-2023: revenue increased from 19.459 billion yuan to 462.48100 million yuan, CAGR was 15.5%; net profit attributable to mothers increased from 710 million yuan to 3.01 billion yuan, and CAGR was 27.3%.
Equipment construction has spawned new combat effectiveness, and the demand for military, civilian and foreign trade is strong: 1) The US Department of Defense plans to purchase 2456 F-35 aircraft. The estimated total purchase cost is 397.8 billion US dollars; my country's air force transformation, navy to deep blue, fighter equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment equipment, fighter equipment equipment, equipment equipment equipment The demand is strong. The cost of the F-35 operation and maintenance is about 3.57 times that of the new machine.2) Military trade or into a new blue ocean, which is higher than domestic sales: In 2023, the proportion of Chinese military trade in the Loma military machine sales accounted for about 1/3. As of August 5, 2024, the US F-35 was 3542 in hand in hand.Military and trade prices are much higher than domestic sales; the company's fourth-generation machine FC-31 participates in the air shows such as Dubai, and military trade is expected to become a new growth pole of the company's performance.3) Civil aircraft laid the long-term market space for aviation manufacturing: According to the forecast of the Indian Shangfei, Indian civil aviation from 2022-2041 is expected to receive 9284 aircraft. Shen Fei Minji participated in the C919 supply chain and is expected to fully benefit.
The production of the first generation, the development of the first generation, and the pre -research generation, the model iteration lays the company's sustainable development source power: 1) The production generation: the company's types of products J -15 and 16 were installed in 2013 and 2016.2) The development of the first generation: The FC-31 fighter developed by the company flew in 2012, making my country the second country in the world to develop two four-generation aircraft at the same time. Navy and military needs.3) Pre-research generation: conform to the evolution trend of "someone-no one" collaborative combat model, the company continues to promote the next generation of main models and development, and has two types of drones: "god carving" and "dark sword".
Continuous reforms laid the company's growth and sustainability: 1) The console "chain leader" leads "small cores, large collaborations": united 601 and other units and scientific research institutes jointly establish a platform for scientific and technological innovation.Balanced delivery to improve the company's operating efficiency: The proportion of revenue between each quarter of 2017 was 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.3%, and 95.9%; and in 2023, the ratio was 19.8%, 30.2%, 24.8%, 25.1%; 2018-2023The company's fixed asset turnover rate is raised from 6.47 times to 10.73 times.2) Promote the integrated layout of "research, manufacturing, and repair": capital increase and participation in Yangzhou Institute, acquired 60%of the equity layout and maintenance business of Jihang Company in 2022, and issued an announcement in 2023Construction projects, titanium alloys, and composite materials and other production capacity construction, the iteration of the company's products is expected to speed up.3) Implement the second -stage restricted stock incentive plan, and the company's profitability and operating efficiency are expected to continue to improve.
Risk reminder: industrial policy risk, product pricing risk, quality control risk.
Click to read the full text ": Fighting machine cradle embrace the wave of air navy construction, military trade and maintenance open long -term development space"
Meng Can | Chief Analyst
Followed Number: S01
Company in -depth research:
Resonance with the Internet of Things Cloud Platform,
The light of the fireflies protects the lights of Wanjia
The company is a domestic visual leader, and the fist product SHC (smart home camera) ranks first in the global and domestic market sales.The company is backed by the global AIOT leader, and is based on AI multi -dimensional perception & cognitive capabilities.
Recommended logic one: The category continues to expand, and the hardware increases the clouds.At present, the company covers SHC/Intelligent Home/Smart Service Robot/Intelligent Control/Smart Weares 5 core self -developed product lines. At the same time, N -type ecological products such as smart pet feeders are introduced.A business matrix of 2+5+n.On the one hand, smart home products provide a huge user base for the cloud platform to diversize the C -end value -added service; at the same time, the smart algorithm provided by the cloud platform has shaped the differentiated selling points of smart homes, forming a hardware income of clouds and increasing business business.model.
Recommended logic two: Fist products SHC's global market is the first, and the gross profit margin is far exceeding the industry.The company ranked first in SHC's domestic market with a sales share of 24.1%in 23 years (according to statistics from Loto Technology, the company and shipments), and ranked first in 24Q1 global sales share (IDC).The company is based on ① peer at most SKU+② people have no self.The dual advantage of the cost end shaped the gross profit margin of the SHC far exceeding the industry.
Recommended logic three: Intelligent home shaping the second curve, AI+robotic capabilities deepen.Domestic smart door locks low -penetration and superimposed visual departments replace fingerprint lock dual drive. The company's smart door lock performance is available in the first camp. Smart entry collection has increased by nearly 50%in 23 years.Two growth curve.In 24 years, the company launched the Blue Ocean Model to enter the intelligence. In 23 years, the company released two commercial and civilian cleaning robots iteration products. At the same time, it was based on the RK3 assistant robot to deepen AI agency capabilities.
Risk reminder: SHC's domestic growth slowly drags the risk of income growth in the cloud platform; cleaning robot sales is not as good as expected risks; the commercial transformation of the Internet of Things cloud platform C side cloud service is not as good as expected risks.Ahmedabad Stock
Click to read the full text "Company In -depth Studies: Resonance with the Internet of Things Cloud Platform, Light of Firefare Lights to Light"
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